2024 Senate · Minnesota
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 55% · Republican 38%
D+17.0
The certified result
Democrat 56.20% · Republican 40.50%
D+15.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 55 − 38 = 17.00
- Actual margin = 56.201 − 40.501 = 15.700
- Signed miss = 17.00 − (15.700) = 1.300
- Absolute miss = |1.300| = 1.300
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89323, race ID 9516 (538 database).
population: lv