2024 Governor · Missouri
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 38% · Republican 52%
R+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 38.72% · Republican 59.14%
R+20.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 38 − 52 = -14.00
- Actual margin = 38.719 − 59.143 = -20.424
- Signed miss = -14.00 − (-20.424) = 6.425
- Absolute miss = |6.425| = 6.425
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 governor_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89324, race ID 9540 (538 database).
population: lv