2024 President · New Jersey
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 57% · Republican 40%
D+17.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.97% · Republican 46.06%
D+5.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 57 − 40 = 17.00
- Actual margin = 51.974 − 46.065 = 5.909
- Signed miss = 17.00 − (5.909) = 11.090
- Absolute miss = |11.090| = 11.090
The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89325, race ID 8851 (538 database).
population: lv