2024 Senate · New Jersey
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 56% · Republican 38%
D+18.0
The certified result
Democrat 53.61% · Republican 43.99%
D+9.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 56 − 38 = 18.00
- Actual margin = 53.611 − 43.990 = 9.621
- Signed miss = 18.00 − (9.621) = 8.379
- Absolute miss = |8.379| = 8.379
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89325, race ID 9522 (538 database).
population: lv