2024 Senate · New York
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 61% · Republican 33%
D+28.0
The certified result
Democrat 58.81% · Republican 40.52%
D+18.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 61 − 33 = 28.00
- Actual margin = 58.815 − 40.524 = 18.291
- Signed miss = 28.00 − (18.291) = 9.709
- Absolute miss = |9.709| = 9.709
The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89326, race ID 9524 (538 database).
population: lv