2024 Senate · Pennsylvania
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 46%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.60% · Republican 48.82%
R+0.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 46 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 48.601 − 48.818 = -0.217
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (-0.217) = 2.217
- Absolute miss = |2.217| = 2.217
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.2 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89327, race ID 9527 (538 database).
population: lv