2024 Senate · Virginia
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 41%
D+12.0
The certified result
Democrat 54.37% · Republican 45.44%
D+8.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 41 = 12.00
- Actual margin = 54.366 − 45.443 = 8.923
- Signed miss = 12.00 − (8.923) = 3.077
- Absolute miss = |3.077| = 3.077
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89328, race ID 9504 (538 database).
population: lv