2024 President · Washington
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 54% · Republican 39%
D+15.0
The certified result
Democrat 57.23% · Republican 39.01%
D+18.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 54 − 39 = 15.00
- Actual margin = 57.229 − 39.011 = 18.218
- Signed miss = 15.00 − (18.218) = -3.218
- Absolute miss = |-3.218| = 3.218
The poll overstated the Republican by 3.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89329, race ID 8902 (538 database).
population: lv