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2024 Senate · Washington

Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel

The poll said

Democrat 58% · Republican 38%

D+20.0

The certified result

Democrat 59.09% · Republican 40.64%

D+18.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 58 − 38 = 20.00
  2. Actual margin = 59.086 − 40.636 = 18.450
  3. Signed miss = 20.00 − (18.450) = 1.550
  4. Absolute miss = |1.550| = 1.550

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89329, race ID 9533 (538 database).

population: lv