2024 Governor · Washington
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 54% · Republican 40%
D+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 55.51% · Republican 44.28%
D+11.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 54 − 40 = 14.00
- Actual margin = 55.508 − 44.280 = 11.228
- Signed miss = 14.00 − (11.228) = 2.772
- Absolute miss = |2.772| = 2.772
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 governor_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89329, race ID 9546 (538 database).
population: lv