2024 President · Wisconsin
Research Co. · fieldwork ended 2024-11-03 (2 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 46%
D+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.74% · Republican 49.60%
R+0.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 46 = 3.00
- Actual margin = 48.737 − 49.596 = -0.859
- Signed miss = 3.00 − (-0.859) = 3.859
- Absolute miss = |3.859| = 3.859
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.9 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89330, race ID 8905 (538 database).
population: lv