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2024 President · Arizona

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 900 respondents · IVR/Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 48.7% · Republican 50.8%

R+2.1

The certified result

Democrat 46.69% · Republican 52.22%

R+5.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.7 − 50.8 = -2.10
  2. Actual margin = 46.690 − 52.217 = -5.527
  3. Signed miss = -2.10 − (-5.527) = 3.427
  4. Absolute miss = |3.427| = 3.427

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89336, race ID 8759 (538 database).

population: lv