Skip to content

2024 President · Michigan

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 790 respondents · IVR/Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 50.5% · Republican 48.9%

D+1.6

The certified result

Democrat 48.31% · Republican 49.73%

R+1.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.5 − 48.9 = 1.60
  2. Actual margin = 48.313 − 49.727 = -1.414
  3. Signed miss = 1.60 − (-1.414) = 3.014
  4. Absolute miss = |3.014| = 3.014

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89337, race ID 8820 (538 database).

population: lv