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2024 President · Nevada

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 840 respondents · IVR/Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 48.9% · Republican 49%

R+0.1

The certified result

Democrat 47.49% · Republican 50.59%

R+3.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.9 − 49 = -0.10
  2. Actual margin = 47.493 − 50.592 = -3.099
  3. Signed miss = -0.10 − (-3.099) = 2.999
  4. Absolute miss = |2.999| = 2.999

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89338, race ID 8857 (538 database).

population: lv