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2024 President · Wisconsin

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 800 respondents · IVR/Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 49.5% · Republican 49.8%

R+0.3

The certified result

Democrat 48.74% · Republican 49.60%

R+0.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.5 − 49.8 = -0.30
  2. Actual margin = 48.737 − 49.596 = -0.859
  3. Signed miss = -0.30 − (-0.859) = 0.559
  4. Absolute miss = |0.559| = 0.559

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89340, race ID 8905 (538 database).

population: lv