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2024 President · Georgia

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 800 respondents · IVR/Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 49.3% · Republican 49.8%

R+0.5

The certified result

Democrat 48.52% · Republican 50.72%

R+2.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.3 − 49.8 = -0.50
  2. Actual margin = 48.525 − 50.717 = -2.192
  3. Signed miss = -0.50 − (-2.192) = 1.692
  4. Absolute miss = |1.692| = 1.692

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89341, race ID 8781 (538 database).

population: lv