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2024 President · North Carolina

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 860 respondents · IVR/Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 49.3% · Republican 49.7%

R+0.4

The certified result

Democrat 47.65% · Republican 50.86%

R+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.3 − 49.7 = -0.40
  2. Actual margin = 47.645 − 50.857 = -3.212
  3. Signed miss = -0.40 − (-3.212) = 2.812
  4. Absolute miss = |2.812| = 2.812

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89342, race ID 8839 (538 database).

population: lv