Skip to content

2024 Governor · North Carolina

East Carolina University · fieldwork ended 2024-10-29 (7 days before the election) · 1,250 respondents · IVR/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 55.2% · Republican 39.5%

D+15.7

The certified result

Democrat 54.90% · Republican 40.08%

D+14.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55.2 − 39.5 = 15.70
  2. Actual margin = 54.895 − 40.084 = 14.811
  3. Signed miss = 15.70 − (14.811) = 0.889
  4. Absolute miss = |0.889| = 0.889

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 governor_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89343, race ID 9502 (538 database).

population: lv