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2024 President · national

Targoz Market Research · fieldwork ended 2024-11-01 (4 days before the election) · 1,200 respondents · Online Opt-In Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 45%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.33% · Republican 49.80%

R+1.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 45 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.326 − 49.798 = -1.472
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (-1.472) = 5.472
  4. Absolute miss = |5.472| = 5.472

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.5 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89386, race ID 8914 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: rv

actual: national share computed from summed statewide votes