District 1 no polls
Predicted R+38.2: the 2024 result (R+48.9) plus the national swing (D+10.7).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
Arkansas 2026 polls
District 2
RFrench Hill
52.0%
average of 1 poll
DChris Jones
48.0%
average of 1 poll
Difference: 4.0 points
Photos: French Hill, U.S. House of Representatives, Public domain; Chris Jones, BloodshotRollinRed, CC BY-SA 4.0. Candidates without a freely licensed photo are shown by initials.
Plain average R+4.0, corrected R+3.0 (±10.0) · 1 pollster, fieldwork through 2026-10-14within the margin of error
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | Result | Margin | ± MOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College for Poll Vault | 2026-10-12 to 2026-10-14 | 383 LV | French Hill (R) 52; Chris Jones (D) 48 | R+4.0 | 10.0 |
District 3 no polls
Predicted R+21.4: the 2024 result (R+32.0) plus the national swing (D+10.7).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
District 4 no polls
Predicted R+35.2: the 2024 result (R+45.8) plus the national swing (D+10.7).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).