Arizona 2026 polls

Predicted D+6.9: the 2024 result (R+3.8) plus the national swing (D+10.7).

In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 64% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).

DJonathan Nez

50.0%

average of 1 poll

REli Crane

48.0%

average of 1 poll

Difference: 2.0 points

Photos: Jonathan Nez, Wikiuser159597, CC BY-SA 4.0; Eli Crane, United States Congress, Public domain. Candidates without a freely licensed photo are shown by initials.

Plain average D+2.0, corrected D+3.0 · 1 pollster, fieldwork through 2026-10-14

Pollster	Fieldwork	Sample	Result	Margin
Emerson College for Poll Vault	2026-10-12 to 2026-10-14	345 LV	Eli Crane (R) 48; Jonathan Nez (D) 50; Undecided (UND) 2	D+2.0

Predicted D+55.0: the 2024 result (D+44.4) plus the national swing (D+10.7).

In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).

Predicted D+18.0: the 2024 result (D+7.3) plus the national swing (D+10.7).

In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 88% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).

Predicted R+10.1: the 2024 result (R+20.8) plus the national swing (D+10.7).

In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 88% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).

Predicted D+8.2: the 2024 result (R+2.5) plus the national swing (D+10.7).

In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 64% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).

Predicted D+37.6: the 2024 result (D+26.9) plus the national swing (D+10.7).

In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).

Predicted R+2.3: the 2024 result (R+13.0) plus the national swing (D+10.7).

In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 53% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).

Predicted R+19.9: the 2024 result (R+30.6) plus the national swing (D+10.7).

In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 88% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).