District 1 no polls
Predicted D+64.9: the 2024 result (D+55.0) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
Predicted D+64.9: the 2024 result (D+55.0) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
Predicted D+49.3: the 2024 result (D+39.4) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).

Difference: 1.0 points
Photos: Jeff Hurd, Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives, Public domain. Candidates without a freely licensed photo are shown by initials.
Plain average D+1.0, corrected D+1.0 (±9.4) · 1 pollster, fieldwork through 2026-10-21within the margin of error
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | Result | Margin | ± MOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department(D-aligned) | 2026-10-20 to 2026-10-21 | 402 LV | Jeff Hurd (R) 46; Dwayne Romero (D) 47; Undecided (UND) 7 | D+1.0 | 9.4 |
Predicted R+1.7: the 2024 result (R+11.6) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 53% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).

Difference: 5.0 points
Photos: Jeff Crank, Ike Hayman, House Creative Services, Public domain. Candidates without a freely licensed photo are shown by initials.
Plain average D+5.0, corrected D+3.1 (±7.9) · 1 pollster, fieldwork through 2026-10-18within the margin of error
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | Result | Margin | ± MOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Global Strategy Group(D-aligned) | 2026-10-14 to 2026-10-18 | 500 LV | Jeff Crank (R) 38; Jessica Killin (D) 43; Other (OTH) 7; Undecided (UND) 11 | D+5.0 | 7.9 |
Predicted D+30.4: the 2024 result (D+20.5) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
Predicted D+24.1: the 2024 result (D+14.2) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
Predicted D+9.2: the 2024 result (R+0.7) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 64% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).