Difference: 0.0 points
Plain average Tied, corrected Tied (±9.1) · 1 pollster, fieldwork through 2026-10-19within the margin of error
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | Result | Margin | ± MOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department(D-aligned) | 2026-10-17 to 2026-10-19 | 414 LV | Bale Dalton (D) 45; Ryan Elijah (R) 45; Undecided (UND) 10 | Tied | 9.1 |
Difference: 0.0 points
Photos: Darren Soto, United States House of Representatives, Public domain. Candidates without a freely licensed photo are shown by initials.
Plain average Tied, corrected Tied · 1 pollster, fieldwork through 2026-10-15within the margin of error
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | Result | Margin | ± MOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA Polling(D-aligned) | 2026-10-10 to 2026-10-15 | — | Darren Soto (D) 44; Dan Green (R) 44; Undecided (UND) 12 | Tied | — |
Difference: 1.0 points
Photos: Anna Paulina Luna, US House of Representatives, Public domain. Candidates without a freely licensed photo are shown by initials.
Plain average D+1.0, corrected R+0.7 (±7.7) · 1 pollster, fieldwork through 2026-10-15within the margin of error
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | Result | Margin | ± MOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling for House Majority PAC(D-aligned) | 2026-10-14 to 2026-10-15 | 603 LV | Anna Paulina Luna (R) 46; Leela Gray (D) 47; Undecided (UND) 7 | D+1.0 | 7.7 |
Difference: 5.0 points
Photos: Kathy Castor, United States Government, Public domain; Mike Beltran, Florida House of Representatives, Public domain. Candidates without a freely licensed photo are shown by initials.
Plain average D+5.0, corrected D+6.0 (±10.5) · 1 pollster, fieldwork through 2026-10-14within the margin of error
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | Result | Margin | ± MOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College for Poll Vault | 2026-10-12 to 2026-10-14 | 315 LV | Kathy Castor (D) 48; Mike Beltran (R) 43; Undecided (UND) 9 | D+5.0 | 10.5 |
Difference: 5.0 points
Photos: Jared Moskowitz, U.S. House of Representatives, Public domain. Candidates without a freely licensed photo are shown by initials.
Plain average D+5.0, corrected D+3.3 (±7.6) · 1 pollster, fieldwork through 2026-10-22within the margin of error
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | Result | Margin | ± MOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling(D-aligned) | 2026-10-21 to 2026-10-22 | 592 LV | Jared Moskowitz (D) 47; Scott Singer (R) 42; Undecided (UND) 11 | D+5.0 | 7.6 |
