District 1 no polls
Predicted R+14.0: the 2024 result (R+24.0) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 88% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
Predicted R+14.0: the 2024 result (R+24.0) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 88% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
Predicted D+22.6: the 2024 result (D+12.7) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
Difference: 5.0 points
Plain average R+5.0, corrected R+5.0 (±11.0) · 1 pollster, fieldwork through 2026-10-07within the margin of error
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | Result | Margin | ± MOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VoteNexus Research(D-aligned) | 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-07 | 301 LV | Brian Jack (R) 50; Maura Keller (D) 45; Undecided (UND) 5 | R+5.0 | 11.0 |
Predicted D+61.1: the 2024 result (D+51.2) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
Predicted D+81.3: the 2024 result (D+71.4) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
Predicted D+59.3: the 2024 result (D+49.4) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).

Difference: 2.0 points
Photos: Rich McCormick, United States Congress, Public domain. Candidates without a freely licensed photo are shown by initials.
Plain average D+2.0, corrected D+2.0 (±8.8) · 1 pollster, fieldwork through 2026-10-09within the margin of error
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | Result | Margin | ± MOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/20 Insight for 20 Insight (D)(R-aligned) | 2026-10-06 to 2026-10-09 | 457 LV | Rich McCormick (R) 45; Tony Kozycki (D) 47; Undecided (UND) 8 | D+2.0 | 8.8 |
Predicted R+27.9: the 2024 result (R+37.8) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
Predicted R+28.1: the 2024 result (R+38.0) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
Predicted R+16.2: the 2024 result (R+26.1) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 88% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
Predicted R+23.8: the 2024 result (R+33.8) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
Predicted R+10.7: the 2024 result (R+20.6) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 88% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
Predicted D+53.6: the 2024 result (D+43.7) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
Predicted R+18.8: the 2024 result (R+28.7) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 88% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).