District 1 no polls
Predicted D+10.5: the 2024 result (R+0.2) plus the national swing (D+10.7).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 88% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
Iowa 2026 polls
District 2
DLindsay James
50.0%
average of 1 poll
RJoe Mitchell
47.0%
average of 1 poll
Difference: 3.0 points
Photos: Joe Mitchell, Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 3.0. Candidates without a freely licensed photo are shown by initials.
Plain average D+3.0, corrected D+4.0 · 1 pollster, fieldwork through 2026-10-14
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College for Poll Vault | 2026-10-12 to 2026-10-14 | 344 LV | Joe Mitchell (R) 47; Lindsay James (D) 50; Undecided (UND) 3 | D+3.0 |
District 3 no polls
Predicted D+6.9: the 2024 result (R+3.8) plus the national swing (D+10.7).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 64% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
District 4 no polls
Predicted R+23.7: the 2024 result (R+34.3) plus the national swing (D+10.7).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).