District 1 no polls
Predicted R+38.8: the 2024 result (R+49.4) plus the national swing (D+10.7).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
Kentucky 2026 polls
District 2 no polls
Predicted R+35.5: the 2024 result (R+46.2) plus the national swing (D+10.7).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
District 3 no polls
Predicted D+34.6: the 2024 result (D+23.9) plus the national swing (D+10.7).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
District 6
DZach Dembo
47.0%
average of 1 poll
RRalph Alvarado
41.0%
average of 1 poll
Difference: 6.0 points
Photos: Ralph Alvarado, Voice of America, Public domain. Candidates without a freely licensed photo are shown by initials.
Plain average D+6.0, corrected D+4.3 · 1 pollster, fieldwork through 2026-10-20
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling for House Majority PAC(D-aligned) | 2026-10-19 to 2026-10-20 | 572 LV | Ralph Alvarado (R) 41; Zach Dembo (D) 47; Undecided (UND) 12 | D+6.0 |