Missouri 2026 polls

Predicted D+68.2: the 2024 result (D+57.6) plus the national swing (D+10.7).

In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).

DFred Wellman

48.5%

average of 2 polls

RAnn Wagner

45.5%

average of 2 polls

Difference: 3.0 points

Photos: Ann Wagner, United States Congress, Public domain. Candidates without a freely licensed photo are shown by initials.

Plain average D+3.0, corrected D+2.7 · 2 pollsters, fieldwork through 2026-10-20

Pollster	Fieldwork	Sample	Result	Margin
Public Policy Polling for House Majority PAC(D-aligned)	2026-10-19 to 2026-10-20	631 LV	Ann Wagner (R) 45; Fred Wellman (D) 46; Undecided (UND) 9	D+1.0
Emerson College for Poll Vault	2026-10-12 to 2026-10-14	401 LV	Ann Wagner (R) 46; Fred Wellman (D) 51; Undecided (UND) 3	D+5.0

Predicted R+15.3: the 2024 result (R+26.0) plus the national swing (D+10.7).

In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 88% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).

Predicted R+34.0: the 2024 result (R+44.7) plus the national swing (D+10.7).

In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).

Predicted D+34.5: the 2024 result (D+23.8) plus the national swing (D+10.7).

In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).

Predicted R+33.1: the 2024 result (R+43.8) plus the national swing (D+10.7).

In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).

Predicted R+34.6: the 2024 result (R+45.3) plus the national swing (D+10.7).

In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).

Predicted R+43.7: the 2024 result (R+54.4) plus the national swing (D+10.7).

In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).