U.S. Senate
RJosh Hawley
52.5%won
average of 4 polls · result 55.6%
DLucas Kunce
43.3%
average of 4 polls · result 41.8%
Difference: 9.2 points Also: Nathan Kline (G) 1.2%, W.C. Young (L) 0.6%
Photos: Josh Hawley, Natureofthought, CC BY-SA 4.0; Lucas Kunce, Nicole Sandler, CC BY 3.0. Candidates without a freely licensed photo are shown by initials.
Plain average R+9.2, corrected R+11.8 (±4.3) · 4 pollsters, fieldwork through 2024-11-03
Result: Josh Hawley (R) 55.6% ✓, Lucas Kunce (D) 41.8%, W.C. Young (L) 1.2% · R+13.7. The plain poll average missed by 4.6 points toward the Democrat.
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | Result | Margin | ± MOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | 2024-11-02 to 2024-11-03 | 450 LV | Josh Hawley (R) 54; Lucas Kunce (D) 43 | R+11.0 | 9.0 |
| GQR(DEM-aligned) | 2024-10-23 to 2024-10-26 | 600 LV | Josh Hawley (R) 49; Lucas Kunce (D) 46 | R+3.0 | 7.8 |
| Emerson College for The Hill | Nexstar | 2024-10-22 to 2024-10-23 | 620 LV | Josh Hawley (R) 50.6; Lucas Kunce (D) 40.5; Nathan Kline (G) 1.2; W.C. Young (L) 0.6; Jared Young (OTH) 0.2 | R+10.1 | 7.5 |
| ActiVote | 2024-10-06 to 2024-10-27 | 400 LV | Josh Hawley (R) 56.3; Lucas Kunce (D) 43.7 | R+12.6 | 9.7 |