District 1
RRyan K. Zinke
47.3%won
average of 3 polls · result 52.3%
DMonica Tranel
42.0%
average of 3 polls · result 44.6%
Difference: 5.3 points Also: Dennis Hayes (L) 4.0%
Photos: Ryan K. Zinke, United States Congress, Public domain; Monica Tranel, vlogbrothers, CC BY 3.0. Candidates without a freely licensed photo are shown by initials.
Plain average R+5.3, corrected R+7.5 (±5.3) · 3 pollsters, fieldwork through 2024-10-17
Result: Ryan K. Zinke (R) 52.3% ✓, Monica Tranel (D) 44.6%, Dennis Hayes (L) 3.1% · R+7.7. The plain poll average missed by 2.3 points toward the Democrat.
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | Result | Margin | ± MOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research(DEM-aligned) | 2024-10-14 to 2024-10-17 | 500 LV | Ryan K. Zinke (R) 46; Monica Tranel (D) 45; Dennis Hayes (L) 4 | R+1.0 | 8.4 |
| Guidant Polling and Strategy for Congressional Leadership Fund(REP-aligned) | 2024-10-13 to 2024-10-16 | 400 LV | Ryan K. Zinke (R) 52; Monica Tranel (D) 44 | R+8.0 | 9.6 |
| Montana State University Billings | 2024-09-30 to 2024-10-16 | 326 A | Ryan K. Zinke (R) 44; Monica Tranel (D) 37; Dennis Hayes (L) 4 | R+7.0 | 9.7 |
