U.S. Senate
DRobert P. Casey Jr.
48.6%
average of 22 polls · result 48.6%
RDave McCormick
45.7%won
average of 22 polls · result 48.8%
Difference: 2.9 points
Photos: Robert P. Casey Jr., United States Senate, Public domain; Dave McCormick, United States Senate, Public domain. Candidates without a freely licensed photo are shown by initials.
Plain average D+2.9, corrected D+1.6 · 22 pollsters, fieldwork through 2024-11-04
Result: Dave McCormick (R) 48.8% ✓, Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 48.6%, John C. Thomas (L) 1.3% · R+0.2. The plain poll average missed by 3.1 points toward the Democrat.
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | 2024-11-03 to 2024-11-04 | 1,840 LV | Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 49.2; Dave McCormick (R) 46.5 | D+2.7 |
| Research Co. | 2024-11-02 to 2024-11-03 | 450 LV | Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 48; Dave McCormick (R) 46 | D+2.0 |
| Patriot Polling | 2024-11-01 to 2024-11-03 | 903 RV | Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 50.4; Dave McCormick (R) 49 | D+1.4 |
| Trafalgar Group(REP-aligned) | 2024-11-01 to 2024-11-03 | 1,089 LV | Dave McCormick (R) 47.4; Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 45.9 | R+1.5 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-11-01 to 2024-11-02 | 2,049 LV | Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 48.7; Dave McCormick (R) 46.6 | D+2.1 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2024-11-01 to 2024-11-02 | 800 LV | Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 47.8; Dave McCormick (R) 46.7 | D+1.1 |
| Emerson College for The Hill | Nexstar | 2024-10-30 to 2024-11-02 | 1,000 LV | Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 47.1; Dave McCormick (R) 46.9 | D+0.2 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-10-30 to 2024-10-31 | 1,738 LV | Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 49.3; Dave McCormick (R) 45.7 | D+3.6 |
| The New York Times/Siena College for The Philadelphia Inquirer | 2024-10-29 to 2024-11-02 | 1,527 RV | Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 50; Dave McCormick (R) 45 | D+5.0 |
| The New York Times/Siena College for The Philadelphia Inquirer | 2024-10-29 to 2024-11-02 | 1,527 LV | Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 50; Dave McCormick (R) 45 | D+5.0 |
| OnMessage | 2024-10-29 to 2024-10-31 | 800 LV | Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 46; Dave McCormick (R) 46 | Tied |
| Marist College | 2024-10-27 to 2024-10-30 | 1,558 RV | Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 50; Dave McCormick (R) 48 | D+2.0 |
| Marist College | 2024-10-27 to 2024-10-30 | 1,400 LV | Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 50; Dave McCormick (R) 48 | D+2.0 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion for Morning Call | 2024-10-27 to 2024-10-30 | 460 LV | Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 49; Dave McCormick (R) 46 | D+3.0 |
| The Washington Post | 2024-10-26 to 2024-10-30 | 1,204 LV | Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 49; Dave McCormick (R) 46 | D+3.0 |
| The Washington Post | 2024-10-26 to 2024-10-30 | 1,204 RV | Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 49; Dave McCormick (R) 45 | D+4.0 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2024-10-26 to 2024-10-27 | 800 LV | Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 46.8; Dave McCormick (R) 46.8 | Tied |
| Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research | 2024-10-25 to 2024-11-02 | 699 LV | Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 49; Dave McCormick (R) 44 | D+5.0 |
| Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research | 2024-10-25 to 2024-11-02 | 798 RV | Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 48; Dave McCormick (R) 43 | D+5.0 |
| YouGov for The Times of London | SAY24 | 2024-10-25 to 2024-10-31 | 982 RV | Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 50; Dave McCormick (R) 43 | D+7.0 |
| YouGov for The Times of London | SAY24 | 2024-10-25 to 2024-10-31 | 947 LV | Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 50; Dave McCormick (R) 44 | D+6.0 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-10-25 to 2024-10-29 | 1,299 LV | Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 48.6; Dave McCormick (R) 46.5 | D+2.1 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2024-10-24 to 2024-10-28 | 824 RV | Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 45; Dave McCormick (R) 44 | D+1.0 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2024-10-24 to 2024-10-28 | 2,186 LV | Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 50; Dave McCormick (R) 47 | D+3.0 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for FOX News | 2024-10-24 to 2024-10-28 | 1,310 RV | Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 51; Dave McCormick (R) 46 | D+5.0 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for FOX News | 2024-10-24 to 2024-10-28 | 1,057 LV | Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 50; Dave McCormick (R) 48 | D+2.0 |
| CNN/SSRS | 2024-10-23 to 2024-10-28 | 819 LV | Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 48; Dave McCormick (R) 45 | D+3.0 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-22 to 2024-10-31 | 1,538 LV | Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 46.1; Dave McCormick (R) 43.2 | D+2.9 |
| YouGov for CBS News | 2024-10-22 to 2024-10-28 | 1,249 LV | Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 48; Dave McCormick (R) 42 | D+6.0 |
| Emerson College for RealClearPennsylvania | 2024-10-21 to 2024-10-22 | 860 LV | Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 46.9; Dave McCormick (R) 45.5 | D+1.4 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research for La Torre Live | 2024-10-18 to 2024-10-22 | 500 LV | Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 48.6; Dave McCormick (R) 45.8 | D+2.8 |
| Trafalgar Group(REP-aligned) | 2024-10-17 to 2024-10-19 | 1,084 LV | Dave McCormick (R) 47.2; Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 46.8 | R+0.4 |
| ActiVote | 2024-10-14 to 2024-10-31 | 400 LV | Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 50.5; Dave McCormick (R) 49.5 | D+1.0 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-10-12 to 2024-10-17 | 2,048 LV | Dave McCormick (R) 48.3; Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 47.1 | R+1.2 |
| The Bullfinch Group | 2024-10-11 to 2024-10-17 | 600 LV | Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 50; Dave McCormick (R) 43 | D+7.0 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2024-10-09 to 2024-10-20 | 794 RV | Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 49; Dave McCormick (R) 42 | D+7.0 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2024-10-09 to 2024-10-20 | 583 LV | Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 49; Dave McCormick (R) 48 | D+1.0 |
| YouGov for Claremont McKenna College Rose Institute of State and Local Government | 2024-10-07 to 2024-10-17 | 1,062 RV | Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 49; Dave McCormick (R) 42 | D+7.0 |
| YouGov for Claremont McKenna College Rose Institute of State and Local Government | 2024-10-07 to 2024-10-17 | 1,043 LV | Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 50; Dave McCormick (R) 42 | D+8.0 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-06 to 2024-10-15 | 1,395 LV | Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 49; Dave McCormick (R) 41 | D+8.0 |