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Pennsylvania 2026 polls

District 1

DBob Harvie
47.0%
average of 2 polls
Photo of Brian Fitzpatrick
RBrian Fitzpatrick
46.0%
average of 2 polls

Difference: 1.0 points

Photos: Brian Fitzpatrick, Kristie Boyd; U.S. House Office of Photography, Public domain. Candidates without a freely licensed photo are shown by initials.

Plain average D+1.0, corrected D+0.8 (±5.6) · 2 pollsters, fieldwork through 2026-10-22within the margin of error

PollsterFieldworkSampleResultMargin± MOE
Siena College for The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University2026-10-16 to 2026-10-22400 LVBrian Fitzpatrick (R) 46; Bob Harvie (D) 48; Other (OTH) 0; Undecided (UND) 6D+2.09.5
Global Strategy Group(D-aligned)2026-10-01 to 2026-10-081,032 LVBrian Fitzpatrick (R) 46; Bob Harvie (D) 46; Undecided (UND) 8Tied5.8

District 2 no polls

Predicted D+52.8: the 2024 result (D+42.9) plus the national swing (D+9.9).

In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).

District 4 no polls

Predicted D+28.1: the 2024 result (D+18.1) plus the national swing (D+9.9).

In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).

District 5 no polls

Predicted D+40.5: the 2024 result (D+30.6) plus the national swing (D+9.9).

In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).

District 6 no polls

Predicted D+22.3: the 2024 result (D+12.4) plus the national swing (D+9.9).

In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).

District 7

DBob Brooks
49.0%
average of 1 poll
RRyan Mackenzie
44.0%
average of 1 poll

Difference: 5.0 points

Plain average D+5.0, corrected D+6.4 (±9.4) · 1 pollster, fieldwork through 2026-10-22within the margin of error

PollsterFieldworkSampleResultMargin± MOE
Siena College for The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University2026-10-16 to 2026-10-22400 LVRyan Mackenzie (R) 44; Bob Brooks (D) 49; Other (OTH) 0; Undecided (UND) 6D+5.09.4

District 8

Photo of Paige Cognetti
DPaige Cognetti
51.5%
average of 2 polls
Photo of Rob Bresnahan
RRob Bresnahan
47.0%
average of 2 polls

Difference: 4.5 points

Photos: Paige Cognetti, US Department of Labor, CC BY 2.0; Rob Bresnahan, House Creative Services, Public domain. Candidates without a freely licensed photo are shown by initials.

Plain average D+4.5, corrected D+5.7 (±6.9) · 2 pollsters, fieldwork through 2026-10-22within the margin of error

PollsterFieldworkSampleResultMargin± MOE
Siena College for The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University2026-10-16 to 2026-10-22400 LVRob Bresnahan (R) 46; Paige Cognetti (D) 51; Other (OTH) 0; Undecided (UND) 3D+5.09.6
Emerson College for Poll Vault2026-10-12 to 2026-10-14396 LVPaige Cognetti (D) 52; Rob Bresnahan (R) 48D+4.09.8

District 9 no polls

Predicted R+31.1: the 2024 result (R+41.0) plus the national swing (D+9.9).

In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).

District 10

Photo of Janelle Stelson
DJanelle Stelson
48.5%
average of 2 polls
Photo of Scott Perry
RScott Perry
47.0%
average of 2 polls

Difference: 1.5 points

Photos: Janelle Stelson, James Newton / jnewt-maps on Bluesky, CC BY-SA 4.0; Scott Perry, United States Congress, Public domain. Candidates without a freely licensed photo are shown by initials.

Plain average D+1.5, corrected D+0.9 (±7.3) · 2 pollsters, fieldwork through 2026-10-22within the margin of error

PollsterFieldworkSampleResultMargin± MOE
Siena College for The Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University2026-10-16 to 2026-10-22400 LVScott Perry (R) 48; Janelle Stelson (D) 48; Other (OTH) 0; Undecided (UND) 4Tied9.6
Susquehanna Polling & Research(R-aligned)2026-10-05 to 2026-10-11300 LVScott Perry (R) 46; Janelle Stelson (D) 49; Undecided (UND) 5D+3.011.0

District 11 no polls

Predicted R+15.9: the 2024 result (R+25.8) plus the national swing (D+9.9).

In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 88% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).

District 12 no polls

Predicted D+22.7: the 2024 result (D+12.8) plus the national swing (D+9.9).

In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).

District 13 no polls

Predicted R+38.5: the 2024 result (R+48.4) plus the national swing (D+9.9).

In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).

District 14 no polls

Predicted R+23.2: the 2024 result (R+33.1) plus the national swing (D+9.9).

In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).

District 15 no polls

Predicted R+33.0: the 2024 result (R+42.9) plus the national swing (D+9.9).

In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).

District 16 no polls

Predicted R+17.4: the 2024 result (R+27.3) plus the national swing (D+9.9).

In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 88% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).

District 17 no polls

Predicted D+17.7: the 2024 result (D+7.8) plus the national swing (D+9.9).

In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 88% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).