District 1 no polls
Predicted D+36.9: the 2024 result (D+26.3) plus the national swing (D+10.7).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
Washington 2026 polls
District 2 no polls
Predicted D+38.6: the 2024 result (D+28.0) plus the national swing (D+10.7).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
District 3
DMarie Gluesenkamp Perez
45.0%
average of 1 poll
RJohn Braun
44.0%
average of 1 poll
Difference: 1.0 points
Photos: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, U.S. House of Representatives, Public domain; John Braun, Troy Kirby, CC BY 4.0. Candidates without a freely licensed photo are shown by initials.
Plain average D+1.0, corrected R+1.1 (±7.9) · 1 pollster, fieldwork through 2026-10-21within the margin of error
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | Result | Margin | ± MOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research for Northwest Progressive Institute(D-aligned) | 2026-10-19 to 2026-10-21 | 551 LV | Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) 45; John Braun (R) 44; Undecided (UND) 11 | D+1.0 | 7.9 |
District 5 no polls
Predicted R+10.6: the 2024 result (R+21.3) plus the national swing (D+10.7).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 88% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
District 6 no polls
Predicted D+24.3: the 2024 result (D+13.6) plus the national swing (D+10.7).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
District 7 no polls
Predicted D+78.8: the 2024 result (D+68.1) plus the national swing (D+10.7).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
District 8 no polls
Predicted D+18.8: the 2024 result (D+8.2) plus the national swing (D+10.7).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 88% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
District 9 no polls
Predicted D+43.7: the 2024 result (D+33.0) plus the national swing (D+10.7).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
District 10 no polls
Predicted D+28.0: the 2024 result (D+17.3) plus the national swing (D+10.7).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).