U.S. Senate
DTammy Baldwin
48.9%won
average of 23 polls · result 49.3%
REric D. Hovde
46.6%
average of 23 polls · result 48.5%
Difference: 2.3 points
Photos: Tammy Baldwin, United States Congress, Public domain. Candidates without a freely licensed photo are shown by initials.
Plain average D+2.3, corrected D+1.1 (±1.5) · 23 pollsters, fieldwork through 2024-11-04within the margin of error
Result: Tammy Baldwin (D) 49.3% ✓, Eric D. Hovde (R) 48.5%, Phil Anderson (I) 1.3% · D+0.8. The plain poll average missed by 1.4 points toward the Democrat.
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | Result | Margin | ± MOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | 2024-11-03 to 2024-11-04 | 869 LV | Tammy Baldwin (D) 48.8; Eric D. Hovde (R) 47.9 | D+0.9 | 6.5 |
| Research Co. | 2024-11-02 to 2024-11-03 | 450 LV | Tammy Baldwin (D) 48; Eric D. Hovde (R) 47 | D+1.0 | 9.0 |
| Patriot Polling | 2024-11-01 to 2024-11-03 | 835 RV | Tammy Baldwin (D) 50.5; Eric D. Hovde (R) 48.6 | D+1.9 | 6.8 |
| Trafalgar Group(REP-aligned) | 2024-11-01 to 2024-11-03 | 1,086 LV | Eric D. Hovde (R) 48.4; Tammy Baldwin (D) 47.9 | R+0.5 | 5.8 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-11-01 to 2024-11-02 | 728 LV | Tammy Baldwin (D) 48.8; Eric D. Hovde (R) 48.3 | D+0.5 | 7.2 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2024-11-01 to 2024-11-02 | 800 LV | Eric D. Hovde (R) 47.7; Tammy Baldwin (D) 47.2 | R+0.5 | 6.8 |
| Emerson College for The Hill | Nexstar | 2024-10-30 to 2024-11-02 | 800 LV | Tammy Baldwin (D) 50.5; Eric D. Hovde (R) 45.4 | D+5.1 | 6.8 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-10-30 to 2024-10-31 | 673 LV | Tammy Baldwin (D) 49; Eric D. Hovde (R) 48.8 | D+0.2 | 7.5 |
| OnMessage | 2024-10-29 to 2024-10-31 | 800 LV | Tammy Baldwin (D) 48; Eric D. Hovde (R) 47 | D+1.0 | 6.8 |
| TIPP Insights for Center for American Greatness | 2024-10-28 to 2024-10-30 | 1,038 RV | Tammy Baldwin (D) 47; Eric D. Hovde (R) 43 | D+4.0 | 5.8 |
| TIPP Insights for Center for American Greatness | 2024-10-28 to 2024-10-30 | 831 LV | Tammy Baldwin (D) 48; Eric D. Hovde (R) 46 | D+2.0 | 6.6 |
| SoCal Strategies for On Point Politics | Red Eagle Politics(REP-aligned) | 2024-10-28 to 2024-10-29 | 600 LV | Tammy Baldwin (D) 49; Eric D. Hovde (R) 48 | D+1.0 | 7.9 |
| Echelon Insights | 2024-10-27 to 2024-10-30 | 600 LV | Tammy Baldwin (D) 49; Eric D. Hovde (R) 48; Phil Anderson (OTH) 0; Thomas Leager (OTH) 0 | D+1.0 | 7.9 |
| Marist College | 2024-10-27 to 2024-10-30 | 1,444 RV | Tammy Baldwin (D) 51; Eric D. Hovde (R) 48 | D+3.0 | 5.1 |
| Marist College | 2024-10-27 to 2024-10-30 | 1,330 LV | Tammy Baldwin (D) 51; Eric D. Hovde (R) 48 | D+3.0 | 5.3 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2024-10-26 to 2024-10-27 | 800 LV | Eric D. Hovde (R) 49; Tammy Baldwin (D) 48 | R+1.0 | 6.8 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2024-10-25 to 2024-11-02 | 1,305 RV | Tammy Baldwin (D) 50; Eric D. Hovde (R) 46 | D+4.0 | 5.3 |
| The New York Times/Siena College | 2024-10-25 to 2024-11-02 | 1,305 LV | Tammy Baldwin (D) 50; Eric D. Hovde (R) 46 | D+4.0 | 5.3 |
| Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research | 2024-10-25 to 2024-11-02 | 786 LV | Tammy Baldwin (D) 47; Eric D. Hovde (R) 45 | D+2.0 | 6.7 |
| Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research | 2024-10-25 to 2024-11-02 | 798 RV | Tammy Baldwin (D) 47; Eric D. Hovde (R) 45 | D+2.0 | 6.7 |
| YouGov for The Times of London | SAY24 | 2024-10-25 to 2024-10-31 | 889 RV | Tammy Baldwin (D) 50; Eric D. Hovde (R) 45 | D+5.0 | 6.4 |
| YouGov for The Times of London | SAY24 | 2024-10-25 to 2024-10-31 | 863 LV | Tammy Baldwin (D) 50; Eric D. Hovde (R) 45 | D+5.0 | 6.5 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-10-25 to 2024-10-29 | 1,470 LV | Tammy Baldwin (D) 48.8; Eric D. Hovde (R) 48 | D+0.8 | 5.0 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-23 to 2024-11-01 | 541 LV | Tammy Baldwin (D) 49; Eric D. Hovde (R) 47 | D+2.0 | 8.3 |
| CNN/SSRS | 2024-10-23 to 2024-10-28 | 736 LV | Tammy Baldwin (D) 49; Eric D. Hovde (R) 47 | D+2.0 | 7.1 |
| Emerson College for RealClearWorld | 2024-10-21 to 2024-10-22 | 800 LV | Tammy Baldwin (D) 48.4; Eric D. Hovde (R) 47.7 | D+0.7 | 6.8 |
| Suffolk University for USA Today | 2024-10-20 to 2024-10-23 | 500 LV | Tammy Baldwin (D) 45.6; Eric D. Hovde (R) 44.2; Thomas Leager (OTH) 1.6; Phil Anderson (OTH) 0.6 | D+1.4 | 8.3 |
| OnMessage for Senate Opportunity Fund(REP-aligned) | 2024-10-19 to 2024-10-22 | 600 LV | Eric D. Hovde (R) 49; Tammy Baldwin (D) 48; Phil Anderson (OTH) 1; Thomas Leager (OTH) 0 | R+1.0 | 7.9 |
| Trafalgar Group(REP-aligned) | 2024-10-18 to 2024-10-20 | 1,083 LV | Eric D. Hovde (R) 48.5; Tammy Baldwin (D) 48.1 | R+0.4 | 5.8 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2024-10-17 to 2024-10-21 | 1,108 LV | Tammy Baldwin (D) 49; Eric D. Hovde (R) 48 | D+1.0 | 5.8 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2024-10-16 to 2024-10-24 | 753 LV | Tammy Baldwin (D) 51; Eric D. Hovde (R) 49 | D+2.0 | 7.1 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2024-10-16 to 2024-10-24 | 753 LV | Tammy Baldwin (D) 49; Eric D. Hovde (R) 47; Phil Anderson (OTH) 2; Thomas Leager (OTH) 1 | D+2.0 | 7.0 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2024-10-16 to 2024-10-24 | 834 RV | Tammy Baldwin (D) 51; Eric D. Hovde (R) 49 | D+2.0 | 6.8 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2024-10-16 to 2024-10-24 | 834 RV | Tammy Baldwin (D) 50; Eric D. Hovde (R) 46; Phil Anderson (OTH) 2; Thomas Leager (OTH) 1 | D+4.0 | 6.6 |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies for The Telegraph | 2024-10-16 to 2024-10-18 | 622 LV | Tammy Baldwin (D) 45; Eric D. Hovde (R) 44; Phil Anderson (OTH) 1; Thomas Leager (OTH) 1 | D+1.0 | 7.4 |
| AtlasIntel | 2024-10-12 to 2024-10-17 | 932 LV | Tammy Baldwin (D) 49.3; Eric D. Hovde (R) 46.3 | D+3.0 | 6.3 |
| The Bullfinch Group | 2024-10-11 to 2024-10-18 | 600 LV | Tammy Baldwin (D) 49; Eric D. Hovde (R) 45 | D+4.0 | 7.8 |
| RMG Research for Napolitan News Service | 2024-10-10 to 2024-10-16 | 787 LV | Tammy Baldwin (D) 50; Eric D. Hovde (R) 47 | D+3.0 | 6.9 |
| ActiVote | 2024-10-06 to 2024-10-31 | 400 LV | Tammy Baldwin (D) 53.6; Eric D. Hovde (R) 46.4 | D+7.2 | 9.8 |
| Morning Consult | 2024-10-06 to 2024-10-15 | 527 LV | Tammy Baldwin (D) 49; Eric D. Hovde (R) 44 | D+5.0 | 8.2 |