Polling error by election
How far the polls were from the certified result, by year and office. Lean is the average signed miss on the Democrat-minus-Republican margin.
| Election | Polls | Races | Lean (95% range) | Average miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 SEN | 193 | 27 | 2.5 pts toward Democrats (1.8 to 3.5) | 3.5 |
| 2024 PRES | 386 | 44 | 2.6 pts toward Democrats (2.0 to 3.2) | 3.2 |
| 2024 HOUSE | 32 | 24 | 4.3 pts toward Democrats (1.3 to 7.0) | 6.6 |
| 2024 GOV | 29 | 7 | 3.7 pts toward Democrats (0.9 to 8.9) | 5.0 |
| 2022 SEN | 162 | 25 | 0.9 pts toward Republicans (-2.6 to 1.4) | 4.8 |
| 2022 HOUSE | 34 | 28 | 3.5 pts toward Republicans (-5.4 to -1.3) | 5.5 |
| 2022 GOV | 154 | 24 | 0.2 pts toward Republicans (-2.3 to 2.2) | 4.7 |
| 2021 HOUSEsmall sample | 1 | 1 | 8.7 pts toward Republicans (-8.7 to -8.7) | 8.7 |
| 2021 GOV | 20 | 2 | 2.0 pts toward Democrats (0.9 to 4.6) | 3.0 |
| 2020 SEN | 182 | 27 | 4.9 pts toward Democrats (3.6 to 6.3) | 5.5 |
| 2020 PRES | 441 | 55 | 3.8 pts toward Democrats (3.1 to 4.5) | 4.7 |
| 2020 HOUSE | 38 | 31 | 5.4 pts toward Democrats (3.8 to 7.1) | 6.2 |
| 2020 GOV | 25 | 6 | 6.9 pts toward Democrats (5.2 to 11.3) | 7.3 |
| 2019 HOUSEsmall sample | 4 | 2 | 5.8 pts toward Democrats (3.3 to 13.3) | 5.8 |
| 2019 GOVsmall sample | 8 | 2 | 2.1 pts toward Republicans (-6.3 to -1.5) | 2.4 |
| 2018 SEN | 139 | 26 | 0.8 pts toward Democrats (-0.7 to 2.3) | 3.9 |
| 2018 HOUSE | 122 | 84 | 0.8 pts toward Republicans (-2.2 to 0.6) | 5.3 |
| 2018 GOV | 127 | 30 | 0.3 pts toward Democrats (-1.7 to 1.8) | 4.7 |
| 2017 SEN | 13 | 1 | 3.6 pts toward Republicans (-3.6 to -3.6) | 6.0 |
| 2017 HOUSE | 11 | 3 | 2.5 pts toward Democrats (-5.9 to 5.1) | 5.1 |
| 2017 GOV | 27 | 2 | 3.9 pts toward Republicans (-5.5 to 0.5) | 5.0 |
| 2016 SEN | 205 | 33 | 4.1 pts toward Democrats (3.0 to 5.2) | 5.6 |
| 2016 PRES | 431 | 54 | 2.7 pts toward Democrats (1.6 to 3.9) | 4.8 |
| 2016 HOUSE | 24 | 17 | 5.0 pts toward Democrats (2.0 to 8.4) | 7.0 |
| 2016 GOV | 56 | 12 | 5.0 pts toward Democrats (2.7 to 7.2) | 6.6 |
| 2015 HOUSEsmall sample | 1 | 1 | 22.9 pts toward Democrats (22.9 to 22.9) | 22.9 |
| 2015 GOV | 13 | 3 | 2.3 pts toward Democrats (-4.1 to 12.0) | 6.2 |
| 2014 SEN | 118 | 23 | 3.2 pts toward Democrats (1.2 to 5.2) | 5.1 |
| 2014 HOUSE | 61 | 44 | 3.2 pts toward Democrats (0.9 to 5.7) | 6.1 |
| 2014 GOV | 127 | 28 | 2.5 pts toward Democrats (0.8 to 4.3) | 4.3 |
| 2013 SEN | 17 | 2 | 1.1 pts toward Democrats (-0.3 to 2.6) | 3.2 |
| 2013 HOUSEsmall sample | 3 | 1 | 12.0 pts toward Democrats (12.0 to 12.0) | 12.0 |
| 2013 GOV | 21 | 2 | 2.2 pts toward Democrats (-3.3 to 5.0) | 5.5 |
| 2012 SEN | 164 | 28 | 3.3 pts toward Republicans (-4.4 to -2.2) | 4.6 |
| 2012 PRES | 330 | 40 | 2.2 pts toward Republicans (-2.8 to -1.3) | 3.3 |
| 2012 HOUSE | 63 | 46 | 4.0 pts toward Republicans (-5.9 to -2.2) | 6.3 |
| 2012 GOV | 40 | 9 | 2.8 pts toward Republicans (-6.2 to 0.1) | 5.1 |
| 2011 HOUSEsmall sample | 9 | 4 | 0.4 pts toward Republicans (-4.3 to 3.5) | 4.9 |
| 2011 GOVsmall sample | 3 | 3 | 3.7 pts toward Democrats (-1.5 to 8.0) | 4.7 |
| 2010 SEN | 183 | 33 | 1.9 pts toward Republicans (-3.6 to -0.2) | 5.0 |
| 2010 HOUSE | 120 | 86 | 0.3 pts toward Republicans (-2.0 to 1.5) | 6.5 |
| 2010 GOV | 168 | 34 | 0.2 pts toward Republicans (-1.6 to 1.4) | 4.1 |
| 2009 HOUSEsmall sample | 7 | 3 | 14.8 pts toward Republicans (-21.4 to 3.1) | 15.7 |
| 2009 GOV | 30 | 2 | 3.3 pts toward Democrats (2.7 to 3.7) | 3.8 |
| 2008 SEN | 145 | 34 | 0.3 pts toward Republicans (-1.8 to 1.5) | 4.6 |
| 2008 PRES | 377 | 54 | no lean (-0.7 to 0.7) | 3.3 |
| 2008 HOUSE | 61 | 45 | 0.7 pts toward Democrats (-2.0 to 3.0) | 6.4 |
| 2008 GOV | 32 | 9 | 1.0 pts toward Republicans (-3.3 to 1.9) | 3.9 |
| 2007 HOUSEsmall sample | 1 | 1 | 2.8 pts toward Democrats (2.8 to 2.8) | 2.8 |
| 2007 GOVsmall sample | 4 | 1 | 3.1 pts toward Democrats (3.1 to 3.1) | 4.3 |
| 2006 SEN | 164 | 24 | 2.5 pts toward Republicans (-4.5 to -0.7) | 5.1 |
| 2006 HOUSE | 135 | 79 | 0.5 pts toward Democrats (-1.0 to 1.8) | 5.5 |
| 2006 GOV | 139 | 31 | 0.6 pts toward Republicans (-2.1 to 1.1) | 4.9 |
| 2005 GOV | 18 | 2 | 3.2 pts toward Republicans (-3.8 to -2.1) | 3.6 |
| 2004 SEN | 111 | 25 | no lean (-2.7 to 2.5) | 4.9 |
| 2004 PRES | 277 | 42 | 1.1 pts toward Democrats (0.4 to 1.9) | 3.1 |
| 2004 HOUSE | 46 | 33 | 0.4 pts toward Republicans (-2.3 to 1.5) | 5.5 |
| 2004 GOV | 19 | 7 | 0.3 pts toward Democrats (-1.5 to 2.0) | 2.7 |
| 2003 GOV | 24 | 4 | 0.4 pts toward Democrats (-7.3 to 4.3) | 5.5 |
| 2002 SEN | 108 | 26 | 2.4 pts toward Democrats (0.7 to 4.1) | 5.0 |
| 2002 HOUSE | 51 | 30 | 1.3 pts toward Democrats (-1.4 to 3.9) | 5.5 |
| 2002 GOV | 130 | 34 | 3.3 pts toward Democrats (1.9 to 4.6) | 5.1 |
| 2001 GOV | 12 | 2 | 2.4 pts toward Democrats (1.5 to 3.7) | 3.5 |
| 2000 SEN | 148 | 28 | 2.7 pts toward Republicans (-4.7 to -0.7) | 5.1 |
| 2000 PRES | 284 | 46 | 2.2 pts toward Republicans (-3.1 to -0.9) | 4.3 |
| 2000 HOUSE | 18 | 15 | 0.5 pts toward Republicans (-3.4 to 3.1) | 5.2 |
| 2000 GOV | 27 | 9 | 1.3 pts toward Republicans (-3.0 to 0.5) | 3.6 |
| 1998 SEN | 81 | 24 | 4.3 pts toward Republicans (-7.3 to -0.7) | 7.2 |
| 1998 HOUSE | 26 | 24 | 4.0 pts toward Republicans (-7.5 to -0.8) | 7.8 |
| 1998 GOV | 94 | 27 | 5.7 pts toward Republicans (-8.7 to -2.9) | 8.7 |