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2008 President · national

Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group · fieldwork ended 2008-10-29 (6 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 45%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.76% · Republican 45.36%

D+7.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 45 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.760 − 45.360 = 7.400
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (7.400) = -3.400
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.400| = 3.400

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 14933, race ID 38 (538 database).