2008 President · national
Big Village · fieldwork ended 2008-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 764 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 43%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.76% · Republican 45.36%
D+7.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 43 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 52.760 − 45.360 = 7.400
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (7.400) = -1.400
- Absolute miss = |-1.400| = 1.400
The poll overstated the Republican by 1.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 14963, race ID 38 (538 database).