2008 President · national
Pew Research Center · fieldwork ended 2008-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 2,382 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 39%
D+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.76% · Republican 45.36%
D+7.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 39 = 14.00
- Actual margin = 52.760 − 45.360 = 7.400
- Signed miss = 14.00 − (7.400) = 6.600
- Absolute miss = |6.600| = 6.600
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 15381, race ID 38 (538 database).