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2008 Governor · NC

The Tyson Group · fieldwork ended 2008-10-28 (7 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 43%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.27% · Republican 46.88%

D+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 43 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.275 − 46.877 = 3.398
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (3.398) = -1.397
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.397| = 1.397

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16543, race ID 1323 (538 database).