2008 Senate · CO
Big Village · fieldwork ended 2008-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 774 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 43%
D+10.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.80% · Republican 42.49%
D+10.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 43 = 10.00
- Actual margin = 52.796 − 42.492 = 10.304
- Signed miss = 10.00 − (10.304) = -0.304
- Absolute miss = |-0.304| = 0.304
The poll overstated the Republican by 0.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16576, race ID 1548 (538 database).