2008 President · CO
Big Village · fieldwork ended 2008-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 774 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 43%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 53.66% · Republican 44.71%
D+9.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 43 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 53.660 − 44.708 = 8.952
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (8.952) = -1.953
- Absolute miss = |-1.953| = 1.953
The poll overstated the Republican by 2.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16576, race ID 709 (538 database).