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2008 President · AZ

Big Village · fieldwork ended 2008-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 807 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 49%

R+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.12% · Republican 53.63%

R+8.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 49 = -6.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.115 − 53.635 = -8.520
  3. Signed miss = -6.00 − (-8.520) = 2.520
  4. Absolute miss = |2.520| = 2.520

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16579, race ID 707 (538 database).