2008 Senate · NC
Big Village · fieldwork ended 2008-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 667 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 44%
D+9.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.65% · Republican 44.18%
D+8.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 44 = 9.00
- Actual margin = 52.653 − 44.184 = 8.469
- Signed miss = 9.00 − (8.469) = 0.531
- Absolute miss = |0.531| = 0.531
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16585, race ID 1569 (538 database).