2008 President · NV
Big Village · fieldwork ended 2008-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 700 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 43%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 55.15% · Republican 42.65%
D+12.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 43 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 55.147 − 42.654 = 12.493
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (12.493) = -6.493
- Absolute miss = |-6.493| = 6.493
The poll overstated the Republican by 6.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16748, race ID 737 (538 database).