2006 Senate · NJ
Big Village · fieldwork ended 2006-10-28 (10 days before the election) · 577 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 44%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 57.20% · Republican 41.19%
D+16.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 44 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 57.204 − 41.185 = 16.019
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (16.019) = -9.019
- Absolute miss = |-9.019| = 9.019
The poll overstated the Republican by 9.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24397, race ID 1598 (538 database).