2006 Governor · OH
Big Village · fieldwork ended 2006-10-28 (10 days before the election) · 542 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 59% · Republican 36%
D+23.0
The certified result
Democrat 60.54% · Republican 36.65%
D+23.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 59 − 36 = 23.00
- Actual margin = 60.541 − 36.648 = 23.893
- Signed miss = 23.00 − (23.893) = -0.892
- Absolute miss = |-0.892| = 0.892
The poll overstated the Republican by 0.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24398, race ID 1351 (538 database).