2004 Senate · WI
Opinion Dynamics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-30 (3 days before the election) · 700 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 56% · Republican 42%
D+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 55.35% · Republican 44.11%
D+11.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 56 − 42 = 14.00
- Actual margin = 55.350 − 44.112 = 11.238
- Signed miss = 14.00 − (11.238) = 2.761
- Absolute miss = |2.761| = 2.761
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25114, race ID 1647 (538 database).