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2012 Senate · VA

Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group · fieldwork ended 2012-10-17 (20 days before the election) · 802 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 44%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.87% · Republican 46.96%

D+5.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 44 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.866 − 46.961 = 5.905
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (5.905) = -1.905
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.905| = 1.905

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30220, race ID 1501 (538 database).