2012 President · OH
Big Village · fieldwork ended 2012-10-31 (6 days before the election) · 796 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 44%
D+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.67% · Republican 47.69%
D+3.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 44 = 3.00
- Actual margin = 50.667 − 47.688 = 2.979
- Signed miss = 3.00 − (2.979) = 0.022
- Absolute miss = |0.022| = 0.022
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30607, race ID 688 (538 database).