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2010 Governor · AK

Big Village · fieldwork ended 2010-10-17 (16 days before the election) · 946 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 62%

R+26.0

The certified result

Democrat 37.67% · Republican 59.06%

R+21.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 62 = -26.00
  2. Actual margin = 37.674 − 59.064 = -21.390
  3. Signed miss = -26.00 − (-21.390) = -4.610
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.610| = 4.610

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32610, race ID 1275 (538 database).