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2010 Senate · AK

Big Village · fieldwork ended 2010-10-17 (16 days before the election) · 946 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 23% · Republican 37%

R+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 23.50% · Republican 35.55%

R+12.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 23 − 37 = -14.00
  2. Actual margin = 23.501 − 35.553 = -12.052
  3. Signed miss = -14.00 − (-12.052) = -1.948
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.948| = 1.948

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32610, race ID 1507 (538 database).